The question on the table is:
How many seedlings do I need to grow to get
(1) get one nice seedling(2) 5 nice seedlings (3) 25 nice seedlings(4) 100 nice seedlings. ???
When you go into the casino and sit down at the slot machine, they constantly tease you with almost wins. However, you almost never hit the jack pot. When you are breeding dahlias there are lots of "almost wins" and since most of us almost never hit the jack pot and all you get is "almosts" the "almosts" get upgraded by you to "wins" . Yes, no matter how many seedlings you grow you will get some "good ones".
I noticed this as we got to be better breeders. We saved about 10% of the seedlings when were beginner breeders. When we got better, we still saved 10%. And now after several decades of breeding, we still only save about 10%. So if you are like us and and your magic number is 10%, you will have 10% nice seedlings.
As you can tell, I am not saying the 10% you save are "really, really" good seedlings although there may some in there but that you will "like " about 10% of them.
We marked 124 seedlings for retention in 2024 out of about 1100 hopefuls. I can tell you right now that most of the 124 are really not that good despite our initial appraisal. We are just like most people and want to give the ones that could be good a second chance. How many are really, really good ? We will see.
One of the 10%.